By Soham Aher. Edited by Swastik Patel
Overview
There is a low danger of another housing market slump in the United States, and research predicts that home prices will rise 12.5 percent in 2022. According to statistics from the CoreLogic Home Prices Index Report, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, and Case-Shiller, house prices increased by roughly 20% in the previous year.
County Housing Markets
However, economic booms that endure more than a few years after the economy reaches full employment are exceptional, and the country should be on the alert for early signals of imbalances. With the events of 2007-2009, as well as the COVID-19 epidemic, still fresh in investors’ minds, the housing market is an obvious location to check for symptoms of overheating.
Following five years of strong rises, the countrywide nominal house price index is currently 40% higher than its low point in 2012 and 4% higher than its peak in 2006. If 2006 was a historic bubble, present prices should be examined more attentively. When considering a sample of the major counties in the United States now and in 2006, there is a significant difference among counties in both the level of home prices and the overall price change since 2006.
Unlike in the mid-2000s, few counties now have high prices, despite a considerable increase in new home supply. The vast majority of counties in the country that are clustered on the left in the “Mortgage debt per capita in select states” chart feature either low prices and sluggish construction – such as many Midwestern and rust belt cities – or supply constraints in response to high prices, such as much of the East Coast and California. On the bottom right side of the chart, an increase in supply has kept prices stable, despite rising demand in southern regions such as North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and Texas.
Conclusion
All property markets are local, and county-level data does not capture all of the intricacies that may influence the price of a particular home in a particular area. Overall though, the housing market in the United States appears to be far less dangerous than it was in the mid-2000s. While there are pockets of quick price rise and extremely high price levels, as well as a few regions with relatively high prices despite expanding supply, nowhere has this pricing pattern been paired with rapid debt increase, as had occurred in several places in the mid-2000s.
